Bonus Watch and elevated signals: read the change, not just the percentage
Bonus Watch looks for an elevated physical-bonus estimate from your selected model. Elevated Signal Watch can highlight any qualifying bin. Both compare the current estimate with a saved historical baseline, while the full raw probability distribution stays visible. Enable sound if you want browser alarms; changing sensitivity changes the alert rule, not the underlying model probabilities.
Why an elevated signal can differ from the largest probability
Imagine a broad group that is common in the observed history. It can keep the highest raw percentage even when another group has moved noticeably above its own usual level. CasinoForecasts separates these two views so that the main signal is not automatically the same common category after every result.
The reference is calculated from completed observations already available when the forecast was issued. It is saved with the forecast rather than reconstructed using future results. For customer models, that context can cover up to 5,000 rounds. The baseline describes this collected history; it is not automatically the game's theoretical probability.
Choose Flexible or Balanced
Flexible sensitivity allows smaller baseline-scaled increases to qualify. Balanced asks for a larger relative change. Neither setting forces a model to be certain or alters its neural weights. The sensitivity belongs to the alert layer, so the probability distribution can remain unchanged when you switch the setting.
A numerical example helps: if a bonus group's observed baseline were 12%, a Flexible threshold would be 13.2% and Balanced would be 15% under the current rule. These are illustrative values, not fixed Ice Fishing odds or accuracy claims. Your live threshold depends on the selected model's saved baseline and the applicable classification.
Keep physical bonuses and scoring separate
Bonus Watch uses physical bonus triggers even if an analytical grouping policy places another outcome beside them. For example, grouping Crazy Time's 10 with Bonus for analysis would not turn 10 into a physical bonus game. Elevated Signal Watch can still evaluate that wider bin under its stated grouping.
Signal hit rate counts issued qualifying alerts, while raw bin accuracy counts the most-probable bin. A no-signal round does not become a successful alert. Each score needs its own count and recorded period. Watches pause while the source is stale or a model is not ready, and browser audio needs the page, connection and sound permission to remain available.
Common questions
Does a missed bonus alert mean a bonus is now due?
No. A later forecast is evaluated on its own available information. The watch records a probability change, not a countdown or an obligation for the next spin to compensate for earlier results.